Could this finally be the year?

Sixteen games to go. We are now two thirds of the way into the season, and things are beginning to get that little bit more exciting. Each dropped point seems all the more tragic, and each win feels that bit bigger. The January transfer window has closed, fans of every club know who they managed to sign and who they managed to keep in their squads. For Forest, 2014 has proved to be a success so far, with the signing of Rafik Djebbour, the return of Jack Hobbs, and perhaps most significantly, Karl Darlow and Jamaal Lascelles were not sold. The sudden emergence of Jamie Paterson has been nothing short of outstanding, as highlighted in Tuesday night's 3-0 win at Huddersfield, but what can this squad achieve? Although Forest are still 5th after a staggering 16 matches unbeaten in all competitions, there is much to indicate that the best is yet to come. Some comparisons with previous seasons will offer some confirmation to the optimists within the fan base.

Only a few months ago, the main aim for the season seemed simple - secure a play off place and anything else is a bonus. The injury time heartbreak served so coldly by Anthony Knockaert last May will remind anybody how crucial a play off place would be, even if it isn't the glamorous prize of automatic promotion. Last season, after 30 games, Forest were lingering in 11th place and were about to lose to second bottom Bristol City 2-0. 6 points off the play offs, and short of any confidence after two managerial changes, there was certainly nowhere near the amount of belief that there is this time around. Compare that to this season, as Forest sit in 5th on 54 points, 8 points clear of 7th placed Brighton.

Billy Davies' return initially prompted a powerful resurgence, winning 6 and drawing 1 of his first seven games back, but a disappointing 1 win in the last 8 matches subsequently led to a painful 8th place finish, just 1 point short of the coveted 6th spot. In those 15 matches, Forest averaged 1.63 points per game. Repeating that over 15 matches meant that what was a 6 point gap in February was just a 1 point gap at the season's end. 

This season, Forest so far average 1.8 points per game - better than the last 15 games of last season, and certainly better than the first 30 games, which returned an average of 1.3 points per game. Although last season's league table was exceptionally flat, there are still a number of reasons why this improved points tally has to be a promising statistic. Firstly, the squad is radically different this season. Karl Darlow is now a comfortable number 1 goalkeeper, and no longer a rookie with potential. The same can be said about Jamaal Lascelles, who was hardly in the picture at the back end of the 2012/13 campaign. The defence has tightened up, with only 30 goals conceded so far, compared to the 42 that had been conceded at this point last season. The attack is also 10 goals better off than it was at this point last season (Forest currently rank as the third highest scorers in the Championship with 50 goals). With 4 more wins, 5 fewer losses, and a goal difference 22 higher than this time last season, the improvement is clear to see. 

Davies constantly refers to his injured players, and although this can often come across as an irritating excuse for dropped points, it is hard to deny his point. With injuries to Lansbury, Wilson, Cohen, Vaughan and Lichaj, he is unable to call upon 5 players who would almost certainly make his starting XI. Lansbury Cohen and Lichaj all started against Derby County in the game that would pinpoint what Forest's strongest XI is, and this was with Wilson already injured, and Vaughan yet to arrive on loan. Similarly, Cohen, Vaughan and Lansbury all started in the away win at Leicester City, with Lichaj also coming on in that game. 

Although it would be unreasonable to point to the loss of Dexter Blackstock as a meaningful reason to explain the dropping of points, it is true that Forest lack a large percentage of what would be Davies' preferred starting XI. No other club in the top 6 has suffered misfortune to that degree, but there is no guarantee that that will remain the same. We are yet to discover what Burnley would be like without Danny Ings for three months, or how Derby would manage without Craig Bryson for that period of time, let alone the loss of 5 crucial players. It is a credit to Forest that with such a large chunk of key players missing, such a strong challenge is being made to reach those top two positions

No two seasons are the same, but it is a promising fact that in the last 3 seasons, two clubs that have gone on to finish second have been in a very similar position after 30 games to the one Forest currently find themselves in. In 2010/11, Norwich City were on 54 points after 31 games, and finished second. Forest boast that return after a game less. Similarly last season Hull City had 53 points after 30 games, a point less than Forest have now. Admittedly there was not a 5 point gap for them to overturn, but with 16 games to play, 5 points seems very little to be intimidated by. If Forest can even turn that 1.8 points per game into 2 points per game over the last 16 matches, it will result in an 86 point finish, which in 2 of the last 3 seasons has been enough to clinch second position. 

It does seem that after so many years of crushing disappointment, this really could be the best shot Forest have had of returning to the Premier League since the relegation of 1999. It isn't just the stats that offer hope, but the squad itself. Very few would deny that the current squad is noticeably superior to the side which finished 3rd in 2009/10, and man for man Forest are now a lot stronger, with the luxury of being able to cope with injuries. The bitterly disappointing collapse in form that so often happens at the latter stages of Forest's seasons over the years could well be avoided this time. Players are coming back, with Kelvin Wilson and Eric Lichaj reportedly just 3 weeks away from returning to first team action. With everything just seeming to click at long last, it certainly is an exciting time to be a Forest fan.

And long may it continue